Predicting Summer Stock Risers Part Two
Yesterday we went back and examined the biggest stock risers from the past three summers. Today, we will examine those fifteen players in hopes of finding similarities that could help us to identify future stock risers. Tomorrow, in part three of the series, we will utilize those findings and attempt to predict any potential prospects in the class of 2012 that could see their stock jump up during next month’s July live period.
Qualities of Breakout Prospects
When comparing the top five breakout stories from each of the last three summers, certain similarities start to appear. Here’s a look at what the evidence shows:
1. Opportunity – It seems obvious but it’s nonetheless a constant among all fifteen identified players. Each and every one of them had an opportunity to show coaches what they were capable of. Nearly half of the players were standouts at camp, where everyone gets similar playing time and equal opportunity to prove themselves. All fifteen of them played on an AAU/grassroots team and while their respective teams and roles varied, they all played significant minutes and 13 of the 15 were typically part of the starting line-up.
2. Getting off to a Good Start – Another major similarity in the 15 examples was getting off to a good start to the month. As we said, nearly half of the players saw their stock jump dramatically in camp, which takes place during the first three days of the live period. Others utilized the Elite 75, which also takes place in the first five days of the period. Even guys like Connaughton and Knight, who did their best work in Orlando, showed steady signs early and gradually escalated their level of play before peaking at the end of the month.
3. Shooters and Size – When you examine the type of games that these 15 players had there are two common denominators, shooting and size. When those two characteristics come in tandem it’s even better. 8 of the 15 players identified could be characterized as shot makers (Connaughton, King, Chionuma, Shaw, Fitzgerald, Glowiak, Martin, Halpern). Of those 8 no one was shorter than 6’2” and five were 6’5” or taller. Even if size didn't come in tandem with shooting, there was still a clear preference for it. Of the 15 players identified, none were less than 6’0” tall, only three were shorter than 6’3”, and only two played the point guard position. Conversely, 10 of the 15 played a frontcourt position.
4. Second Chances – Another trend we can identify from the data suggests that the bigger you are the more likely you are to get second chances. Williams, Halpern, and McCoy were all 6’8” or bigger and had all seen their stock drop by varying levels heading into the month of July, only to reverse their fortunes in the live period. There were no guards who saw a similar fate. Instead the guards who saw their stock rise in July were flying farther under the radar and typically saw a gradual escalation that began in the spring.
Conclusions
These commonalities help to create a profile of a typical breakout prospect. First and foremost they have to be in a position to be seen by college coaches and then they have to strike early in the period and make a big impression. The vast majority of July stock risers make a big splash in the first five days of the period and the players who start the month slow are rarely able to regain enough momentum to take their recruitment to entirely new levels.
When it comes to the type of prospect most likely to break out, the bigger they are and the more shots they make the better. The fact that big shooters are so popular suggests that college coaches are putting a premium on skilled face-up four-men who can stretch the defense, while not putting as much value in the smaller breakdown style guard, who is much more common in today’s game.
Finally, size does matter. College coaches aren’t necessarily handing out their scholarships to the 13 best players, they are putting a full team together, meaning they need just as many guys in the frontcourt as they do the backcourt. With a much larger supply of guards available than big men, post players have the luxury of second chances while guards who see their stock fall prior to the start of the live period, typically aren’t able to fully recover.