Whats in a Ranking Anyway?
There are several criteria by which you could rank players. You could assess who the best players are right now, who has had the best careers to date, or who has the most long-term potential within the game.
When the New England Recruiting Report ranks players our main focus is on assessing who is the best college prospect. That question takes into account a little bit of everything and so there is no exact formula.
A player’s past and present are no doubt important in measuring their future, however, the college game is a very different one than the high school game and so there are a number of other factors that must be considered.
First and foremost are a player’s physical tools. The college game is one that is designed for big and long athletes. Although the game is becoming faster and more guard dominated all the time, those guards are often six-feet-plus with incredible quickness and explosive leaping ability (aka they’ve got physical tools too). So while the 5’10” two guard isn’t at all uncommon in high school, that guy better have the springs of Ben Gordon or a jumper like Stephen Curry if he wants to play off the ball in college, especially at the division I level.
In reality, the size differential at the next level has correlating impacts on every position on the floor. Consequently, when evaluating a player’s prospectus, one of the first questions you need to ask yourself is – what position does this guy play at the next level.
But there’s a caveat here. You have to consider both sides of the floor. If a guy is 6’10” and can shoot a three-pointer that doesn’t mean he’s a small forward. He has to be able to defend a (college level) small forward on the perimeter before he can earn that distinction.
Physical tools don’t just impact a player’s position at the next level, they also help to gauge his “upside” or potential. The unfortunate reality is that all players were not created equal when it comes to the game of basketball. Some players just have higher potential in the game then others based solely on their natural gifts and the truth is that college coaches are much more likely to take a chance on a player with size, mobility, length, and/or athleticism.
Sometimes when comparing two players, the better player right now is not the better college prospect. Finding the better player right now is much more straight forward. Figuring out which will be better in college requires you to analyze what position they will play, if they’ll be able to impact the game in the same types of ways they do in high school, and how much they could improve in the future.
Analyzing potential improvement is by far the hardest of the three, because not only do you have to evaluate a player’s physical tools, but you also have to consider their work ethic and feel for the game. For every player who just doesn’t have the size or the explosiveness to make it the highest level there is another gifted athlete who lacks the discipline and work ethic or basketball instincts to ever maximize his tools.
There is also a bit of a sliding scale in terms of upside and age. The younger a player is, the more coaches are intrigued by their long term potential. As players get older, and certainly by the time they reach their final year, college coaches start asking ‘can they help us win next year’.
Furthermore, just as the best high school player isn’t always the best college prospect, sometimes the best college prospect isn’t always the best NBA prospect. The NBA game is different than the college game (even bigger and more athletic) and you have to ask yourself the same questions all over again.
Truth be told the region’s top ten in each class would look noticeably different if we ranked according to who was the best player now or who had the most potential to play professionally one day.
As the New England Recruiting Report continues to update our rankings this week, hopefully you now have a better understanding of what we’re looking and the criteria we use to evaluate the prospects in New England. Most importantly, hopefully you will remember there’s no exact formula and everything is relative to the day you see each prospect play.